Saturday, August 9, 2008

Not quite WW3...

As you may well know (or not - the John Edwards sex scandal is much more important to our "news" than actual journalism) there is a big time war happening in Georgia (the country, not the USA's state).

Here's the short and sweet summary of the situation: After the fall of communism and the breakup of the Soviet Union, many ethnic Russians were stranded in the newly independent countries. Many of the new countries passed draconian, clearly racist laws designed to kick the Russians out or at least to give them as little say in a country's politics as possible. Because of the economic situation, many Russians stayed in enclaves in the various republics - after all, they have been there for generations, and all their belongings and valuables were there - things like their house, their farm land, etc. Fleeing to Russia - to what? - is simply not an option to many of them.

Various coflicts took place between the ethnic Russians and the newly independent ethnic majorities - and by conflict I do not necessarily mean shooting war.

But that is exactly what is happening now in Georgia, unfortunately...

The small enclave of South Ossetia is Russian, and successfully broke away from Georgia in 1992. The current Georgian president Mikheil Saakashvili decided to gamble and during the opening of the Olympics, when he figured the attention of the world was focused on Beijing and the celebration of China's ruling geritocracy, he ordered an offensive.

Georgian artillery and airplanes bombed ethnic Russian civilian targets in a massive offensive with tanks, airplanes, artillery, commandos - the works.

South Ossetia put up resistance but they were outclassed - until Putin decided that enough humiliation for Russians is enough and ordered Russian forces into South Ossetia.

We are talking modern (very modern) jets in air to air combat, with massive Russian tank forces pushing the Georgians out of South Ossetia territory.

Here's what you might not know - there are about 1500 American military advisors in Georgia, and the official line is that they (goodness me!) did not have any idea that Georgia would launch a surpise "Tet" offensive to ethnically cleanse South Ossetia and that they (goodness me!) are NOT involved in any way.

By golly, gosh darn, this is literally see no evil, hear no evil etc...

Unless (not quite conspiracy alert here as this is very plausible) the pro West, soon to be NATO members (possibly) Georgians coordinated this with Washington's very own neocons (perhaps not Bush, but the real shadow players behind the throne).

And guess what?

Apart from the American advisors, there are (possibly - need conformation on this) Israeli "advisors" also in Georgia.

Quite a witches brew, eh?

So what Russia (and Putin and whoever is in charge supposedly now in Russia - lets not kid ourselves, it is Putin still) saw was a US-Israeli move to again grab some oil, this time really close to the Russian border.

Simply put, when the Soviet Union fell, America saw an opportunity to expand its influence into hitherto unavailable territories (ex of Soviet Union) and took it.

And America is STILL aggressively expanding everywhere in the world, a la the neocon doctrine of one world superpower and damn the rest of the globe (and also do not allow a competing superpower to be created).

Russia has had enough and so struck back - hard.

I wonder if any American or Israeli "advisors" died in this (by proxy) Russia - USA (and Israel) war.

Some links for you guys:

(Sorry am in a library and the internet here is preventing me from linking on the blog).


Anonymous said...

Thats pretty much is what is happening Goy, just as you summed it up.

If I were the Russians, I'd be trying to kill every "advisor" the US and Israel had in Georgia by any means possible.

Its astonishing to me to see my country, the good ol' USA, become the aggressor nation, fomenting revolutions and undermining legitimate governments just like the Soviet Union was doing in the sixties, seventies, and eighties.

Once a "settelment" is reached for this area-----Russia needs to build a wall between it and Georgia and declare it either its own new nation, or part of Russia. Im sorry, but walls work. Some people simply will not live together.

Anonymous said...

Ossetians are a separate ethnic group, not ethnic Russians.

Anonymous said...

Excellent post AG. May I add a few observations of my own:

1. Georgia was well prepared for this attack. They managed to shoot down 4 or 5 Russian SU-26's. This would not be possible unless they received the most advanced anatiaircraft system available.

2.The Russian response has been lackluster at best. In an all out war Georgia's airforce would be extinguished after a few hours. Yet Georgia is still kepping its fighters in the air. Also, we have seen video of Georgia reserves being transported by rail car to fortify their defenses. Russia should have been able to disable the rail infrastructure in no time. What gives?

3.Israeli press reports that they will stop weapons shipments to Georgia so long as Russia does not arm Iran pursuant to a future USIsraeli attack. Georgia in being used to gain leverage over Russia before the bigger war begins. If Russia acquiesces, Iran will receive no support and Saakashvili will be left in the lurch by his American allies.

PS: You also have to wonder what the effect of this war will be on the stationing of antiballistic missile defenses in Poland and on Georgia's admission to NATO. I suspect this will put a damper on those plans.

Best Regards,
Mssr. Queue

qwerty said...


Good points. Really surprised that Russia has not already knocked out all of Georgia's fighters and demolished their infrastructure--railways and highways...something like Israel did in Lebanon in 2006, except this time for good defensive reasons. There may be a couple reasons for this. The ad hoc response is most likely a reflection of Russia's total surprise and they simply did not have a plan to respond to this open aggression.

Second, vineyardsaker, on his blog is reporting that Russians have captured a non-English, non-Russian speaking pilot. Who the third country is remains unknown.

kozeol said...

Yes, USA and Israel were training Georgian troops.
It is very funny to see, how CNN is falsely accusing Russia in killing 2000 innocent OSETIAN civilians.
2000 Osetians were killed in assault by Georgian forces. But West media is always ready to accuse someone else.
Georgia assaulted and killed at least 2000 Osetian non-combatant civilians and now CNN accuses Russia of this deed.
Very nice.
I hope, there will be war and Russia will fight with USA. I will join Army and go kill some of your republicans!

kozeol said...


I was closely following every news piece in Russia and CIS media over Osetia conflict.

In the media, Russian generals claim that Georgia was preparing for this assault for a long time. Saakashvili, the president of Georgia, waited for the Olympiad in China to start the assault on South-Osetia and make some type of BlitzKrieg. To take over South-Osetian capital and make government of South-Osetia to capitulate in 12-24 hours. So that intervention of Russian forces will be regarded as intervention on Georgian territorial sovereignity.
But everything went wrong for Georgia.
Georgian forces, trained by USA and Israelis, began killing civilians, bombing them in their houses in early morning. Destroying infrastructure of the city and communications. Journalists in Tzkhnvali were unable to use their cell-phones, since Georgians were correcting their bombing to cell-phone radio-emitting locations.
Russians, as any wise men would do, had an emergency plan, and they have long before prepared the 58th army in nearby areas, with air-borne divisions, seeing the escalations and army regrouping inside Georgia. They have entered the South-Osetia and began cleaning it out of Georgian troops.
President of Georgia, right before the assault to South-Osetia, the night before, have declared that they will withdraw forces from Khodori valley, from Georgia-Abkhazia conflict was taking place.
After Russia entered South-Osetia, and georgian forces have met considerable opposition from local South-Osetian troops, Saakashvili declared martial law in Georgia for next 15 days.
He even gave CNN a rather sarcastic interview, saying that opposing Georgian forces in South-Osetia by Russian army is a direct military action against USA! And completed it with claim that USA should join forces with Georgia and start military intervention as its ally.
CNN and most of West media - are accusing Russia of killing innocent civilians - the deed done by Georgians and Russian internet part is very furious on this fact.
By now, russian military has seized at least 2 black (african?!) georgian troops, not speaking Russian/Georgian/Osetian. At least 1 pilot, also not speaking russian nor english(!).
USA should stop whining on Russians doing their own business in the region.

kozeol said...

For a review on the conflict from "Первый Канал", major TV channel in Russia: However

Anonymous said...

America's involvement in the region, and the subsequent "Friendship Building" campaign is a signal of the start of a new confrontation, which may not take long to develop into a military standoff. WW3 or New Cold War, the harsh reality of a impending conflict is very evident now.