Tuesday, February 12, 2008

American democracy superdelegate edition - part deux

Obama has a lead in the delegate count!
Hooray! He has won Maryland, Virginia and the District of Columbia. Sweep sweep SWEEP says the media. Hillary must win Texas says the media. It's in the bag! Now about those superdelegates...

"There are currently 4,049 total delegates to the Democratic National Convention, including 3,253 pledged delegates and 796 superdelegates. The total number of delegate votes needed to win the nomination is 2,025"

"So Hillary or Obama needs 2,025 delegates to win. The superdelegates are roughly 39% of this "magic number" of delegates that are needed to win."

Keep this in mind - the superdelegates in the Democratic party nomination process make up roughly 40% of delegates. So the normal democratic party faithful who vote for either Hillary or Obama effectively vote for 60% of the candidates...

CNN Election Center 10:52 US Central Time:

Barack Obama
Pledged: 1059
Superdelegates: 156
Total: 1,215

Hillary Clinton
Pledged: 956
Superdelegates: 234
Total: 1,190

John Edwards
Pledged: 26
Superdelegates: 0
Total: 26

The first thing that jumps at me is that John Edwards, who is out, still has 26 pledged delegates voting for him. How the fuck does that happen? My guess - they have already been allocated in the voting process before he dropped out. (And its a damn good guess).

The second thing that jumps out at me is that Obama has a very slim lead in delegate count, 1,215 to 1,190. Not surprisingly the party insiders, the undemocratic superdelegates, are voting for Clinton the ultimate insider 234 to 156.

Are voting? They have not voted yet! They are biding their time, waiting for just the right time to to pounce and mess up the whole process. They will hold their votes until almost the end of the election.

MSNBC election scorecard 10:52 US Central Time:

Obama has 1,074 and Hillary has 967 - and on the MSNBC page it does not state whether this includes the superdelegate count or not... Weak.

Bit of a discrepancy there between MSNBC and CNN ain't it?

Compare CNN's just the pledged delegate count, ignoring the superdelegates then:
Barack Obama Pledged: 1059 to Hillary Clinton's Pledged: 956.
Now remember - there are 796 superdelegates... most of whom have not pledged to vote one way or the other.

This should make you think, as the superdelegates - again I have to hammer this point - do not vote until the end of the Democratic presidential nominee election. Holding out for favors. It is a fine art - if they hold out too long, one nominee may get an insurmountable lead in delegate count, and then the poor superdelegate's vote may not matter much and so no favors for him...

Right now phone calls are made, favors exchanged, jobs in the future promised, jobs given away now to nephews, sons, daughter, wives and friends of these superdelegates. Money under the table, future speech circuit tours scheduled, junket trips to massage parlors with a "happy" ending...

That is why the Kennedy clan endorsement of Obama was so important - they are the ultimate Democratic party insiders, able to wheel and deal behind the scenes, cajoling the superdelegates to vote for Obama - if they choose to. Obviously the Kennedy family has come to an arrangement with the Obama camp - and they went against the old guard of the Democratic party as represented by Hillary, which was a major shock and surprise. Again, it is not just Senator Ted Kennedy endorsing Obama; it is the whole Kennedy clan. I wonder what the deal between Barack and the Kennedys is... oh to be a fly on the wall of that meeting...

Edit: Perhaps just perhaps the superdelegates are perfect uncorruptible human beings. And perhaps I am a dog sitting in front of the computer.

Bonus Material:
ABC News delegate count as of 12:25 Eastern Time:
Clinton 1196, Obama 1215, Edwards 36.

Seems no one can agree on exactly how many delegates vote for whom. And... Edwards 36?! I take back my guess about why some delegates are voting for Edwards. I am as clueless as the experts on CNN, ABC and MSNBC...

Democracy American style - catch it.
Coming soon in Iraq - NOT! (the last word must be read in a Borat voiceover).

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Anonymous said...

Its true - all those web pages have different delegate numbers WTF?

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